Operating with Fuzzy Probability Estimates in Decision Making Processes with Risk

Oleg Uzhga-Rebrov, Galina Kuleshova


This paper considers different techniques of operating with fuzzy probability estimates of relevant random events in decision making tasks. The recalculation of posterior probabilities of states of nature based on the information provided by indicator events is performed using a fuzzy version of Bayes’ theorem. The choice of an optimal decision is made on the basis of fuzzy expected value maximisation.


Comparison of fuzzy numbers; fuzzy arithmetic; fuzzy expected value; restricted fuzzy arithmetic

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